Saint Louis Real Estate Update: August 2024
The St. Louis real estate market in 2024 presents a complex but dynamic landscape driven by affordability, new construction, urban revitalization, and broader economic factors. Understanding the nuances of these components offers deeper insights into both the challenges and opportunities within the market.
1. Affordability and Market Dynamics
St. Louis continues to be one of the most affordable large metropolitan areas in the United States, with a median home price of around $225,000 as of mid-2024, compared to the national median of approximately $420,000. This affordability is sustained by the city’s slower pace of price growth, which has been compounded by stagnant wage growth in certain sectors and modest economic expansion. For buyers, this affordability is a key driver, enabling more access to homeownership, particularly among first-time buyers.
Despite this, the rise in mortgage rates to around 7% in 2024, compared to sub-3% levels in 2020, has eroded some of the affordability advantage. Monthly mortgage payments have increased significantly, meaning that while St. Louis remains cheaper relative to other cities, the absolute cost of buying a home has risen for many. This has led to a more balanced market, with reduced demand at the entry level and fewer bidding wars compared to the heated market of previous years.
For sellers, pricing strategy has become critical. While St. Louis does not see the same rapid price escalations as coastal cities, certain neighborhoods (e.g., Central West End, Clayton) still experience low inventory levels, maintaining upward pressure on prices. Sellers in these markets benefit from continued interest, especially from professionals moving to the area.
2. New Construction Trends and Supply Constraints
New construction is a significant factor in the St. Louis real estate landscape, especially in urban and suburban infill developments. Areas like Cortex and Forest Park Southeast are seeing a proliferation of mixed-use developments and luxury condos, aimed at affluent buyers seeking modern amenities. The average cost per square foot for new construction has increased to around $175-$200, driven by inflation in labor and material costs.
These rising construction costs have led to challenges for developers, particularly in the affordable housing segment. The city's legacy of high vacancy rates in certain areas has offered opportunities for redevelopment, but the profitability of new construction is often hampered by the need for significant subsidies or public-private partnerships. For instance, projects in the North Riverfront area are often reliant on tax increment financing (TIF) or federal Opportunity Zone incentives to remain viable. As a result, while new construction is adding to the housing supply, it is often concentrated in higher-end markets, leaving a gap in affordable options.
3. Urban Revitalization and Infrastructure Development
Urban revitalization continues to be a cornerstone of St. Louis' real estate market, particularly in historically disinvested neighborhoods. The Chouteau Greenway Project, for instance, aims to connect disparate parts of the city through green infrastructure, enhancing walkability and bike access while spurring adjacent real estate development. As these infrastructural improvements take hold, they are catalyzing demand in nearby residential markets.
Similarly, Old North St. Louis and Fox Park have seen a renaissance driven by both grassroots efforts and strategic investments in historic preservation. The city's use of historic tax credits, combined with local investment incentives, has made it economically feasible to restore and repurpose historic buildings. However, these revitalization efforts also face challenges in balancing new development with the preservation of neighborhood character, as well as ensuring that revitalization does not lead to widespread displacement.
4. Rental Market and Investment Properties
St. Louis maintains a strong rental market, particularly in the multifamily and short-term rental sectors. The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the city is approximately $1,100 as of 2024, with rent growth slightly outpacing inflation. Demand for rental units remains high, particularly among younger residents who are delaying homeownership due to high interest rates and the burden of student loan debt.
The city’s low property tax rate, combined with its central location and steady demand, continues to attract real estate investors. Investors are increasingly targeting areas around universities, hospitals, and major employment centers, with both long-term and short-term rental properties showing strong returns. For example, neighborhoods near St. Louis University and Barnes-Jewish Hospital remain popular for both traditional rentals and Airbnb investments, where nightly rates can exceed $150 for well-located properties.
Moreover, the influx of institutional investors in the single-family rental market has further constrained supply, especially in popular neighborhoods. This trend mirrors national patterns where larger investment firms are buying up properties in bulk, often outcompeting individual buyers. This institutional activity has led to debates about the long-term impact on homeownership rates and housing affordability in the region.
5. Economic Factors and Future Outlook
The broader economic environment plays a crucial role in shaping the St. Louis real estate market. The local economy, while diversified across sectors such as healthcare, education, and logistics, remains vulnerable to broader economic shifts, including interest rate changes and potential recessionary pressures. St. Louis' GDP growth has been moderate, and job growth has been concentrated in specific sectors, such as tech and healthcare, while manufacturing and retail have seen declines.
The Federal Reserve’s ongoing monetary policy has led to higher borrowing costs, and this tightening has resulted in a slowdown in transactional volume. For both buyers and sellers, the key going forward will be adapting to these changing conditions. Mortgage originations are expected to remain below their peak levels, while cash buyers and investors may find new opportunities as distressed properties emerge.
Looking ahead, the real estate market in St. Louis will continue to balance between affordability pressures, the need for new inventory, and the potential for continued urban revitalization. While challenges remain, particularly in addressing housing equity and access, the city's stable economic foundation and ongoing infrastructure investments provide a positive outlook for the years to come.
Photo by Kevin Wright on Unsplash